Defensive fragility a key factor in predicting relegation: A closer look at Wolves’ backline under Vitor Pereira

The data is stark, for teams at risk of relegation, prioritising defensive solidity over offensive flair appears to be a more reliable strategy for survival in the Premier League.

Data from the past six seasons across the top five European football leagues provides clear insights into the importance of defence over attack when it comes to avoiding relegation from the Premier League. The data shows that teams in the relegation zone with an above-average attack but a below-average defence face an almost 50/50 chance of being relegated. As it stands, Wolves, who have conceded the most goals in the league this term, sit firmly in this category. Unless Vitor Pereira can rebuild our defence quickly, which in fairness, he has shown signs of doing, this indicates that our strong offensive performances alone (31 goals scored and joint 9th highest scorers in the league- level with 7th placed Aston Villa) won’t be sufficient to guarantee survival. If Wolves don’t shore themselves up defensively, and quickly, it’s still, ultimately, a coin flip.

Contrastingly, teams that manage to maintain an above-average defence, even with a below-average attack, significantly increase their chances of staying in the league, avoiding relegation two-thirds of the time. The first team that springs to mind here is Everton, which is why it surprised me so much that they opted to part ways with Sean Dyche. More often than not, any team with a stern defence survives. Last year, under David Moyes – the newly appointed Everton manager- West Ham conceded more goals than anyone outside of the bottom three (a whopping 74). Definite food for thought, as there is now a solid argument to be had that come the end of the season it will be Everton, rather than Ipswich, who look increasingly spirited with each passing week, that Wolves will need to best.

Vitor Pereira has made a solid enough start to his Wolves tenure overall. Enough to suggest he’s a competent coach anyway. Worryingly though, his side have begun to leak goals again in the last three games- after consecutive clean sheets prior. A big part of this is a significant lack of quality in defensive areas, especially from a strength in depth perspective. Square pegs are still in round holes, but it’s not by choice.

Emmanuel Agbadou’s arrival may well remedy some of the problems, but against Bristol City and Newcastle, he was operating from the left-centre-back as opposed to his more natural right-side- still occupied by the makeshift Matt Doherty; who admittedly, prior to Newcastle, had performed adequately there, but it is doubtful Pereira sees him as the longer term solution. This is exactly why Wolves still have more business to do if they are to ensure their Premier League status for another year.

The hierarchy need to act fast to bring in an additional defender for that left side of Pereira’s three. And it needs to be an absolute priority quite frankly. Defensive solidity will require depth as the second half of the season inevitably takes its toll. Going forward, I’d imagine Pereira would like his options at the back to look something like this (first choice/back-up):

RCB: Agbadou/Doherty 

CB: Bueno/Dawson 

LCB: Toti/?

As you can see, there is still a glaringly obvious vacancy in what will need to be the bedrock of this team. A blank space made more stark by the reports this week that Toti’s injury may be worse than first feared.

Wolves needn’t worry about becoming overstocked in this area. If the plan is to stick with Vitor Pereira then five at the back is here to stay, and the club will need a full complement of defenders to carry out his philosophy. Furthermore, Craig Dawson, who will likely only have a bit part role to play for the remainder of this season, is out of contract in the summer and, as his performances have declined somewhat this season, it is highly unlikely his contract will be extended further anyway.

That leaves Yerson Mosquera to come back in at the start of next season and fulfil the vacancy Dawson leaves. However, the club will be reluctant to bank on a successful Mosquera return for the time being- a return at the start of next season would be the earliest possible return, contingent on the success of his rehabilitation. However, exact timelines for recovery from such injuries can vary widely. Mosquera suffered damage to both his medial collateral ligament (MCL) and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), it is a complicated injury and subsequent recovery process and players do not always return to their previous form after injuries of this magnitude. His return will need to be managed delicately. On a more promising note, centre-back seems to be a position in which these sorts of injuries are best weathered. Take Virgil van Dijk as a prime example. After a severe knee injury in 2020 involving an ACL tear, van Dijk returned to Liverpool in the following season and gradually regained his form. He has since continued to perform at an elite level, showing that full recovery is possible.

This may bode well for Wolves, but the situation is complicated further still by Mosquera’s contract situation.

Mosquera’s salary is reported to be somewhere between £6,000-£8,000 per week. He remains on the initial contract he signed at Wolves when he joined as something of a speculative prospect from Colombian side Atlético Nacional.

Mosquera was showing promise as Wolves’ standout defender at the start of the season, which had led to rumors of negotiations for a well-deserved contract extension- to bring him in line with what would be expected for a regular starter in the Premier League. The timing of his unfortunate injury, however, means Wolves are now faced with the dilemma of whether to commit to a new long-term deal before seeing how well he recovers. It would appear highly unlikely they would do that before they have reassurances about his ability to return to the level he was playing at before- this, of course, requires time. Time, however, is not of the essence. Mosquera’s current contract expires in June 2026, meaning he could begin negotiating with foreign clubs as early as January 2026- should he wish. Which is noteworthy as Villareal, where he had a successful loan spell last year, were sniffing around in the summer. The risk for Wolves is that if they delay too long, they might see Mosquera leave on a free transfer, especially if he proves his recovery and performance level.

In a nutshell, the conundrum Wolves currently face is as follows: if Mosquera returns to his pre-injury form swiftly, he would become an attractive prospect not only for Wolves but also for other clubs. If a club considered a ‘step up’ (a list that grows exponentially longer if Wolves are playing in the Championship next season) expresses an interest and the player himself is keen to take the next step in his career (whilst at a club that is essentially build on the promise not to stand in anyone’s way -such is our ability to attract young talent from overseas) then Wolves could very much have to face the prospect of losing him for a paltry fee, or worse, on a free. But what other choice does the club have? To afford him a circa £30,000 p/w deal at this stage is an impossible risk to take. Therefore, Wolves are likely banking on survival, as well as Mosquera’s own loyalty and gratitude for the faith they’ve shown in him from his early days to now, hoping he’ll choose to extend his contract with the club, if only to preserve his value, if and when he returns to the peak of his powers. 

Ultimately, despite often looking much more severe, the jigsaw that is Wolves’ defence is arguably just one piece away, at least to be satisfactory enough to avoid the drop this season. But it is a crucial piece that must fit into the broader picture the manager, Vitor Pereira, is creating- and it likely won’t come cheap, especially in January. 

There may be bumps in the road in the future as Pereira strives to consolidate such a weak defensive unit, but if the club are to ensure they are facing these problems from a place of prosperity and comfort (the Premier League) then they can ill-afford to sit on their hands now. If they do, both statistically and figuratively speaking, they are voluntarily placing the fate of the club at the mercy of the flip of a coin. It would be an act of blind faith that two of Ipswich, Leicester and Everton will ultimately conspire to somehow be worse than us. This as opposed to us actively striving to do better, to be better. Which is fundamentally what sport is all about.

Yet without reinforcements at the back the odds are stacked against us. Data proves nothing is more significant to survival than defensive stability, and it is now becoming quite clear how Vitor Pereira is striving to go about creating that; his system is clear and could well be effective. He has been vocal about his desire for more additions beyond Agbadou in the January window. This is evidence enough that Pereira recognises Wolves’ plentiful goalscoring will not diminish the very real risk of relegation presented by conceding goals at will. To my mind, it is precisely this conundrum to which he is referring when he speaks of his wish to ‘balance’ the team. Now, with absolutely no questions asked, he needs the tools to do it. He needs backing.