DAVE PORTER SHARES 5 THINGS WE LEARNT FOLLOWING WOLVES 2-2 DRAW WITH PALACE
1. One more game to go
At the time of writing, there is no picture of the corner flag and the clichéd thanking of the manager for all of their efforts and wishing them well as they part ways. A defeat would have surely ended the tenure of Gary O’Neil, but the draw against a Palace team who are struggling themselves and missing their key players probably means that O’Neil will get one final chance against Southampton next week.
O’Neil has fallen over the cliff, but his fingernails are clinging desperately to the eroding cliff edge. The plummet to the bottom has not yet happened, but it may have been more merciful to have gone straight over. The end is inevitable; the clinging on is tortuous. Before this game, O’Neil said it wasn’t a ‘must win,’ and he may have been right. It certainly hit the category of ‘must not lose,’ but there is no escaping the fact that four points was the absolute minimum outcome of the double header. Only a win now can save O’Neil. The game against Southampton must finally hit the definition of ‘must win.’
2. Sometimes the Train is Too Out of Control to Stop
Whatever you think about Gary O’Neil as a manager, whether you blame the owners, the recruitment, the players, or the witch that seems to have cursed the club before the FA Cup game against Coventry, sometimes things just go so wrong for so long that it becomes impossible to reverse. Wolves have obvious quality and no little effort, but confidence is shattered. A win now feels as daunting to the players and the club as a climber at the base of Everest about to take the first step. Wins are habit-forming, as are defeats. Sometimes you can’t stop the momentum. It’s gone on too long; it’s too powerful. Sometimes the train has to be written off, you deal with the damage caused, and you build a new one. Wolves have not won a Premier League game since beating (now Championship) Luton Town in April. Wolves have 1 win in 22. Wolves are out of control.
3. Whatever the question is, Pablo Sarabia is never the answer.
Pablo Sarabia gave us all a timely reminder of why he has played so infrequently this season. Sarabia has mastered the art of becoming a better footballer when he is not in the team. Occasionally, he delivers game-changing contributions, like his performance against Brighton or the goal and assist against Tottenham, which make you believe in his talent. And he does have talent, but it is so infrequent that it cannot be relied upon.
The skill that Pablo Sarabia does have in abundance is that when he is not on his game, which is most of the time, his lack of physical attributes becomes a hindrance. He isn’t just a player who is carried or just makes the odd individual error, he actively makes the team worse. He will likely be back out of the team again now, and after a few weeks on the bench, he will fool us again. It’s what he does best.
4. The Disconnect Between O’Neil and Hobbs
We often hear about the great relationship between O’Neil and Hobbs. O’Neil, after all, is Hobbs’ man. But what level of disconnect must there be to result in signings that were either not needed or not good enough? Only Strand Larsen of the summer signings started against Palace. O’Neil is starting to use this as an excuse, citing budget constraints and the lack of Premier League experience among the recruits.
But if the relationship with Hobbs is as strong as we are told, wouldn’t O’Neil have had some input, even if it was indirect? Wolves are not a club with the financial power to buy players who do not immediately threaten the first eleven, especially when winning has become so desperate. This raises the question: is there a deeper issue at play here? Are relationships more strained and fractured than we think?
5. The maths don’t work
The top of the Premier League is not as dominant as it once was. This causes an issue: more points are being distributed across the rest of the league rather than being absorbed by the top two. As a result, relegation may require closer to the magic 40 points than it has in previous seasons. Wolves have 3 points from the 10 games played. With 28 fixtures remaining, Wolves will likely need 37 more points to reach safety, which means they need over 1.3 points per game. Their current run rate is 0.3 points per game.
Extending this into the previous season, since losing to Coventry in the FA Cup, Wolves have played 19 Premier League games, securing an average of 0.53 points per game. To now hit 40 points, they will need to find the form that would secure almost 50 points across a regular season. To put it another way, Wolves will have to secure the equivalent of 12 wins and a draw from the remaining 28 games. This is a required win rate of 43%. For context, Nuno Espírito Santo’s win rate during Wolves’ Europa League season was 39.5%, and Gary O’Neil’s win rate since joining Wolves is 29.73%.
At this point, it looks more realistic to say that Wolves might be closer to achieving a record low points total than securing safety. There is nothing in the maths that suggests Wolves will or even can stay up from here. The Championship is coming. Preparations should start to be made.
ARTICLE BY DAVE PORTER
Wolverhampton born, East Sussex based supporter. Old enough to have seen the descent to the bottom, young enough to not have experienced the days my friend. Not many Wolves fans to celebrate or commiserate with round these parts, so had to find an outlet to discuss the enormous highs, crushing lows and share the frustrations that only come with following Wolves.
